From Farm to Factory: Agricultural Mechanization and Occupational Outcomes in Early Twentieth Century America

Speaker: Prof Henry Siu

Affiliation: University of British Columbia

Location: Room 215, Chamberlain Building (#35), St Lucia Campus

Zoom: https://uqz.zoom.us/j/82603079317

Abstract: This paper examines the occupational outcomes of agricultural workers during the early twentieth century mechanization of American farming. To do so, we use linked U.S. Census data from 1920-1950 and exploit geographical variation in tractor adoption. Reduced-form OLS analysis reveals that agricultural workers in counties with greater tractor penetration experienced improved occupational earnings, consistent with the techno-optimist view of structural transformation and broader economic development. However, instrumental variables estimation showsthat mechanization directly displaced workers into lower-paying occupations, with particularly severe effects on younger workers. These contradictory findings are reconciled by recognizing that agricultural mechanization coincided with rapid industrialization creating abundant manufacturing and other jobs in urbanlocalesrequiring similar skills. Unlike today's automation, withsubstantial human capital and geographic barriers to occupational mobility, the early twentieth century transformation not only benefitted society broadly through economic growth, butalso generated higher earnings for the very workers displaced by the new technology.