Speaker: Scott Dickinson

Affiliation: University of Exeter

Location: Room 207, Chamberlain Building (#35), St Lucia Campus

Zoom: https://uqz.zoom.us/j/82603079317

Abstract: In many experimental settings, individuals appear to either underreact or overreact to information when making decisions about the future. Less is known about how individuals react to information when making decisions in naturalistic settings. In this paper, I study the ability of individuals to incorporate information on past outcomes when making predictions about future outcomes using data on elite sports. In the setting under observation, fans make hundreds of predictions about the future performance of elite athletes. Using variation in outcomes between athletes who took actions with the same probability of success, I show that persistence in the data generating process is correctly incorporated by fans into their predictions, consistent with rational belief updating.

About Centre for Unified Behavioural and Economic Sciences (CUBES) e-seminars

An online seminar series on Experimental and Behavioural Economics organized by the Centre for Unified Behavioural and Economic Sciences (CUBES) of the School of Economics at The University of Queensland.

Our seminars take place fortnightly via Zoom on Wednesdays at 10 am or 5 pm (AEST), depending on whether the guest speaker is streaming from US/Australia or Europe respectively.

Seminars consist of a 60-minute presentation followed by 15 minutes of Q&A.

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You can check the corresponding times for your own time zone using the following links for each session: 10am, 5pm.

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If you wish to attend an upcoming seminar within the 48-hour window, please drop an email to Lionel Page.

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Venue

Chamberlain Building (#35), St Lucia Campus
Room: 
207