How Do Individuals React to Information? Evidence of Rational Decision Making from Elite Sports
Speaker: Scott Dickinson
Affiliation: University of Exeter
Location: Room 207, Chamberlain Building (#35), St Lucia Campus
Zoom: https://uqz.zoom.us/j/82603079317
Abstract: In many experimental settings, individuals appear to either underreact or overreact to information when making decisions about the future. Less is known about how individuals react to information when making decisions in naturalistic settings. In this paper, I study the ability of individuals to incorporate information on past outcomes when making predictions about future outcomes using data on elite sports. In the setting under observation, fans make hundreds of predictions about the future performance of elite athletes. Using variation in outcomes between athletes who took actions with the same probability of success, I show that persistence in the data generating process is correctly incorporated by fans into their predictions, consistent with rational belief updating.
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