Under the Influence: The Behavioural Toll of Urban Air Pollution

Speaker: Dr Nadezhda Baryshnikova

Affiliation: University of Adelaide 

Location: Room 443, Michie Building (#09), St Lucia Campus

Zoom: https://uqz.zoom.us/j/82603079317

Abstract: This paper investigates the causal impact of short-term air pollution exposure on criminal activity across five major U.S. cities from 2010 to 2022. Using over 21 million geocoded crime records and hourly pollution data, we employ a negative binomial regression with a control function approach, leveraging temperature inversions and wind patterns as instruments to address endogeneity. Our high-frequency, spatially detailed analysis reveals that carbon monoxide (CO) significantly increases both violent and property crime, consistent with biological mechanisms linking pollution to impaired emotional regulation and impulsivity. In contrast, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) reduce property crime – and in the case of NO₂, also violent crime – likely due to behavioural avoidance responses triggered by respiratory discomfort. PM2.5 shows no significant effects. These findings provide robust evidence for both neurophysiological and behavioural channels and underscore the broader societal costs of pollution, suggesting that environmental policy can yield public safety co-benefits.