In The Eye of the Storm: Quantifying the Cascading Impacts of Cyclones

Speaker: Dr Ha Nguyen

Affiliation: University of Western Australia

Zoom: https://uqz.zoom.us/j/82603079317

Abstract: This paper quantifies the causal impacts of cyclones and identifies the potential pathways through which they influence childbearing decisions among Australians of reproductive age. Using an individual fixed-effects model and exogenously measured cyclone exposures, we identify a robust, substantial, but short-lived decline in fertility occurring only after the most severe category 5 cyclones. The fertility reduction is most pronounced among females, younger individuals, those with higher education, married individuals, individuals from poorer or uninsured households, and residents of rural, coastal, or historically cyclone-prone regions. Likely pathways include child mortality, cyclone-induced home damage, increased marital breakdown, and heightened psychological stress.