Date Wednesday 17 February 2016
Venue Room 103 Colin Clark Building
Time 10:00 am

Ismail Baydur

ADA University and CERGE-EI


This paper studies the cyclical behaviour of employment duration using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort. We estimate a proportional hazard model with competing risks, distinguishing different types of separations. A higher unemployment rate at the start of an employment relationship increases the probability of job-to-job transitions, while its effect on employment-to-unemployment transitions is close to zero. We find similar patterns when we distinguish the separations by different reasons and contrast quits and firings. We then build a simple job-ladder model to interpret our empirical results. The cyclical behavior of opportunities for job-to-job transitions play an important role in the cyclical behaviour of match quality.