Eva Vivalt | Australian National University

Evidence-based policymaking requires not only evidence, but also for policy- makers to update appropriately based on that evidence. We examine how policymakers, researchers, and others update in response to results from multiple studies, using a unique opportunity to run an experiment on policymakers. We find evidence of “variance neglect”, a bias similar to extension neglect in which confidence intervals are ignored. We also find evidence of increased updating on positive results. This means that policymakers might be biased towards those interventions with a greater dispersion of results. We test ways to mitigate the observed biases.

About School Seminar Series

School of Economics seminars are the main academic seminar series held on a Friday. These seminars are presented by guest researchers and enable School of Economics academics to network with other academics from around Australia and internationally.


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