Econometrics Colloquium Seminar: Analysis of monetary policy in Japan using the smooth-transition models

Tatsuyoshi Okimoto | Australian National University

In this talk, I will discuss two papers analyzing the monetary policy  in Japan using the smooth-transition models. The first paper attempts  to assess the overall macroeconomic effects of Japan’s unconventional  monetary policies, with an emphasis on the recent quantitative and qualitative easing program. The analysis suggests that expansionary  unconventional monetary policy shocks have clear macroeconomic  effects, leading to a persistent rise in real output and inflation in Japan. The second paper examines the dynamics of expected inflation  regimes in Japan over the last three decades based on the smooth transition Phillips curve model. The results indicate that the  introduction of the inflation targeting policy, and quantitative and  qualitative easing in the beginning of 2013 successfully escaped from  the deflationary regime, but was not enough to achieve the 2% inflation target.